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Recent Poll Shows Alaska Marijuana Legalization Winning By Large Margin


regulate marijuana like alcohol alaska legalization 2014Alaska voters will be voting on marijuana legalization next month, along with Oregon and Washington D.C.. While case law makes marijuana legal in Alaska already, it’s far from the legalization model that is in place in Washington and Colorado where consumers can go into a store and buy marijuana for recreational purposes. Most polls that I have seen out of Alaska have shown the initiative barely winning, or even losing. However, those polls were flawed for several reasons. The most recent poll shows the initiative winning, and by a large margin. Per AmandaCoyne.Com:

According to a question on a poll conducted by local pollster Ivan Moore, Ballot Measure 2, which would tax and regulate marijuana like alcohol, is winning in the state by about 18 percentage points, 57.2 percent to 38.7 percent. The question about the measure was paid for by the group working to legalize pot in Alaska, and was asked as part of a larger poll that Moore was conducting. The sample size was 568 likely voters, and was conducted Sept. 26-30. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. (I’m waiting for the complete demographics.)

Taylor Bickford, who’s running the legalization campaign, said that the numbers seem a little optimistic to him. Older internal polls showed the campaign winning, but by a slimmer margin, he said. However, the poll is significant in that it’s the first public poll that asks the question exactly as it will appear on the ballot. A highly touted August PPP poll which showed the measure losing messed up the wording in the question. Further, the PPP poll didn’t call cell phones, which are a key demographic in this race.

This is great news for marijuana reform in Alaska and for the nation. Every state that legalizes marijuana builds momentum for other states to legalize, and eventually, for the entire country to legalize at the federal level. I’m very hopeful that we will see Oregon, Washington D.C., and Alaska all pass marijuana legalization next month. If you are able to do so, I urge you to donate to the Alaska campaign as they try to make their final push to get their message out to voters.


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Johnny Green


  1. Of course any sample that has been regression-fitted to the last voter demographic will be assuming this year’s voters won’t include a significant number of new voters who feel strongly about marijuana.

  2. Alaska has long been a haven for those wanting to live with as little outside influence as possible. You find this to be even more prevalent the further from Anchorage one travels. Recently this respected and historically distinctive group has been co-opted by ultra- conservative anti-government haters/ separatists, most coming from the lower 48. These are a very different breed of cat altogether from Alaskan frontiersmen.

  3. The prohibitionists want a close poll in order to attract prohibitionist money. It also causes more legalization money to be poured into the election.

  4. Alaska is a different kind of conservative than the states in the Lower; personal freedom tends to trump law and order, for instance … For the average Alaskan, this is more about retail stores than “legalization”, which they pretty much already have, de facto.

  5. Jeez I wish u had been my statistics professor in college. Mighta gone a little smoother. lol

  6. stellarvoyager on

    The sample size matters a lot less than how the selection of participants was done; that is, whether they were randomly selected or not. A very large sample that is not randomly chosen, such as a voluntary-response sample, will tend to be far less representative than a well-chosen sample of only a few hundred. Any statistician will tell you this, that sample size matters a lot less than the method of choosing people for the sample (random selection or not random selection).

    As for this poll, the sample size was fine. The margin of error accounts for any differences due to random variation from sample to sample. In a non-randomly chosen sample, there would be no way to measure the margin of error because the errors would be due to selection bias, not just random variation, which could be described mathematically.

  7. I was born there and although I don’t often agree with non- native born Alaskan’s politically, on this issue I’m pulling for my home state 100% GO ALASKA!!!

  8. Actually, that is a common sample size to use. Especially considering how sparsely populated Alaska is. However, I’d like to know what kind of track record Juan Moore has before making a judgment on how much stock to put it this poll. I do find such a wide margin hard to believe in such a conservative state.

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